Shows

Ok, this post is really just for my own help. I'm just doing some planning on what shows I should plan on attending. Being that I work with several technologies...I need to go to several. I'm planning on going to:

VoiceCon (November in SFO)
http://www.voicecon.com/

NRF Big Show (Jan in NYC)
http://events.nrf.com/annual09/public/enter.aspx

Digital Signage Expo (Feb in Vegas)
http://www.digitalsignageexpo.net/

But... as far as AV and VTC conference go. I'm not sure which one I want to go to. Sure NAB is a blast..but its just not worth it if you're in AV or VTC. (but it is a cool show). There is Interop...but VTC is just a small portion (and theres no AV).

So...curious... who's going to what shows? which ones do you think are the flubs? and which is the best to go to?

thanks!

Cisco moving forward

You might have seen the news today from Cisco:

http://newsroom.cisco.com/dlls/2008/prod_092408.html?POSITION=LINK&COUNTRY_SITE=us&CAMPAIGN=NewsAtCiscoLatestNewsfromCDCHP&CREATIVE=LINK1&REFERRING_SITE=CISCO.COMHOMEPAGE


But they just made a new set of announcements in the collaboration space.

I was going to make a post a few days ago..and as a blogger that discusses industry rumors, its interesting sometimes posting them. You can make your prediction or pass on the rumor and if it turns out right, you appear as the smarty pants in the room. If you miss it, you look like you're the dumbest. Well... I'll give you the rumor...even though it wasnt announced this week. (I still believe it will though).

The rumor is that Cisco is going to come out with a mid-priced video endpoint. It will be priced no more than a Polycom HDX and will be 1080P in quality. It will be a rack mount unit with a extneral camera and unlike all of the other Cisco telepresence systems, it will not ship with a monitor (the customer will supply their own). I havent been able to find info yet of whether or not Cisco developed this internally or used a partner. I do believe that it is NOT the same hardware architecture as the telepresence systems; i believe Cisco used its famous ability to get the price point of the hardware down so that they could crank these out at high margin to Cisco. (high margin to Cisco resellers is only dream... the typical Cisco reseller makes just 2% on the hardware)

So..thats the rumor... take it or leave it.

So...thoughts on the announcement they made. I would say...impressive... they are starting to tie together and putting on all the chrome they will need to compete with MS in this market. I found the announcement about Jabber pretty interesting as well:

http://blogs.cisco.com/ar/comments/cisco_to_acquire_jabber/

Of course all of us know the Jabber protocol as a fairly standard and widely used IM protocol. Its good to see these standards protocols being used. (although some would argue that SIP would be the better route)

The only thing I see missing is tighter integration to room system video.

But...one area that I was surprised to see was that Webex Connect is looking very much like Sharepoint. This is really interesting...not from a app perspective...more from a strategey perspective. Cisco is solidly jumping out of real time (synchronous) communications and moving into asynchronous communications. This is a point of demarcation really...and maybe the start of a new wider IT strategey for Cisco that moves them out of the Network or Telecom group in the sales cycle.

Video Consolidation

I've been spending a lot of time talking to channel partners as well as manufacturers and building upon my understanding of the greater market.

As we wait to hear the final news about TAA... it makes me think about why there isn't other consolidation?

This isn't short term..I wonder who's going to buy who this quarter..but more longer term thinking.

If you're in the video business and you've got engineers on staff with experience in building av i/o, a/v switching, UI, base platforms, audio codecs, or video codecs... why not look at greater value through scale? Why shouldnt a Polycom be merged with digital signage player such as Symon? Or why shouldn't TAA merge with a IPTV player like PRN? Or why doesn't PLCM buy up some other audio companies like AudioCodes, Digium, or I3? Or maybe Sony should buy Clearone?

I think there is so much unrealized value out there. Think about it... why should TAA spend time working on h.264 code and PRN do the same? Or PLCM spend time on some audio codec that I3 needs as well. Not to mention the back end business aspects that are redundant across so many companies.

Bob & Mike over at PLCM really need to take some action and show that they want to keep running the company or intend to sell it. If your competitor is going to merge with a telephony partner, should you? Does being "me too" get you to the finish line before everyone else? Only if you can execute better. Maybe taking a different approach might work? Most of the resellers of video conferencing also do AV work. They all have not only greater revenue streams at selling AV then they do at VTC, but also fatter margins.

A great example...in higher end VTC rooms, they typically install a AMX or Crestron controller. $15K or more can be spent just on that aspect of the room. (I really need to blog about my thoughts on why this is necessary...another time). I don't know the size ofthat market (might be good to research), but it appears quite rich.

Why not complementary technologies? Digital Signage for one. Its at least $2.7B in size. Its complementary technology (from the building block level). While, it might not complimentary on the sales side, it would give you scale on the engineering side. IPTV could be another, and so, on.

Merger Mania

So, its all pretty widely known that Tandberg is in talks to be acquired.

http://www.reuters.com/article/mergersNews/idUSLD6502620080813

I've heard some strong minded Polycom folk actually think (or maybe want others to think) that Tandberg is the one shopping them selves out. (with the outrageous assumption that TAA is throwing in the towel). I think thats so far from the truth, its unbelievable. Cmon... TAA is taking market share daily from Polycom. Those in the lead, dont throw in the towel.

The truth is that its market consolidation time. The kings of voice need video as they've now all determined that end users are now ready for it. Several years of YouTube, Skype, and other applications have softened them up for the inevitability of having video right at their desk.

Tandberg will be purchased and merged into a voice provider. It could be several, but if you think of the players out there, I think the answer is obvious who it is.

I think that also puts others in play, such as Polycom. If one voice giant now has a fully integrated suite of video, the others will need it as well.

Nortel is already partnered up with Polycom and has large investments in demo facilities using Polycom RPX. But, Nortels balance sheet isnt rich enough to make this happen. It would have to be closer to a merger than a acquisition. I can't imagine Nortel wanting to do the Canada/USA split company again... remember when Nortel bought Bay Networks... what a mess.

Cisco does already have a small video conferencing portfolio... but they could certainly use the breadth of products that Polycom has. There is overlap in a few areas...but that fits well into how Cisco works.... let several development teams work on similiar technologies...then let the market decide who wins. Cisco traditionally likes buying small teams with ideas ready to pop.... Polycom would be more like a Scientific Atlantic acquisition as they are a more mature company... but, the plus is that Polycom is HQ'ed in the bay area, making a merger easy to pull off. (Polycom has one office right on First Street, a block from Tasman).

But..the question would be, what would derail the deal. Mike & Bob don't seem like they want to sell the company. I've heard through rumors that several companies have approached Polycom...including Cisco several years ago, but they deals never closed. I even heard about a deal with a Norwegian company (no, not TAA) coming close to buying PLCM prior. So, are Bob & Mike ready to sell? The recent actions to RIF 80 people across the company was obviously a move to improve EPS.

And what happens to some of the other players? Lifesize? Sony (Spire Global)? They certainly would have to change up their game to survive if the two largest players were merged into two telephony companies.

I've got a glass of Sauvignon Blanc and some popcorn popping and am ready to watch the show.

ATTENTION KMART SHOPPERS!

Its a blue light special in Aisle 4.

Yes, the big news is that I've left Polycom. While a big change for me... it will also be a big change for this blog.

While I have all the best feelings for Polycom and hope the best for all my ex-co-workers, I now can post fairly independently.

First off, now that I've joined the many others that have also left Polycom over the years, I've decided to create a group up on LinkedIN for all of the Polycom Alumni. If you're interested in joining it, please go here:

http://www.linkedin.com/e/gis/166317

If you're curious about my new job, I've joined an up and coming company, Network Engineering Technology. Their website is here:

http://www.nettechnology.com/

I've taken on the role of Business Development for Technology Partners. I'm currently hunting down companies we can partner with. We are a technology services integrator that has expertise in providing nationwide field services. I'm really excited about not only the company change, but also the role change.

More to come....

I'm awake!

Sorry...it sure seems like I've been asleep over the summer. My apologies!

It does feel a bit like I was in a coma... but now it feels like I've woken up.

I'll start posting again!

Thanks for reading - Jeff

Incorrect

To: Tandberg/Codian (and any customer that was told the following)

The HDX when making a 720p call to a RMX2000 does support 30 frames per second.

Not 15, not 20... but 30. If anyone wants to see it, I'd be happy to arrange a demo.

I hear this one about once a week and its just not true.