q3 numbers are out:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/RADVISION-Reports-Third-Quarter-2008/story.aspx?guid=%7BF24DA599-F0C9-40A7-97A4-AC7557359D81%7D
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Friday, October 24, 2008
Sage Advice
"Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful."
-Warren Buffet
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Polycom pre-announces 1080P
http://www.polycom.com/usa/en/company/news_room/press_releases/2008/20081020_2.html
Hightlights are:
New Polycom HDX 8006 (shipping in December)
Upgrade to the Polycom RMX2000 (Q1 2009)
RPX & TPX releases using the new 8006 (unknown, but in 2009)
Previoulsy Polycom had announced the 8004 would be upgradeable, but no announcement was made on that. As well, Polycom in the past has said the 9004 would be upgradeable. Oddly enough, this goes against previous marketing from Polycom that said that higher resolutions would first be requested in highly integrated codecs..but 1080P comes first to the 8000 line which is NOT designed for integrators.
Hightlights are:
New Polycom HDX 8006 (shipping in December)
Upgrade to the Polycom RMX2000 (Q1 2009)
RPX & TPX releases using the new 8006 (unknown, but in 2009)
Previoulsy Polycom had announced the 8004 would be upgradeable, but no announcement was made on that. As well, Polycom in the past has said the 9004 would be upgradeable. Oddly enough, this goes against previous marketing from Polycom that said that higher resolutions would first be requested in highly integrated codecs..but 1080P comes first to the 8000 line which is NOT designed for integrators.
Monday, October 20, 2008
Lifesize, how big are they?
With all the hoopla around Lifesize... its got me wondering...
how big are they?
I was at PLCM when they initially launched. I have to say... we intially were upset...then moved to a charge to take them on...released the HDX... then became complacent as we felt like we crushed them. Everyone felt like they were done with... we heard tons of rumors of people defecting. In truth...some Lifesize employees were ex-Polycom and some of them actually came back to Polycom. Anyway...
I have to think at this time, PLCM is paying alot more attention to Lifesize. So...really how big are they? They're not public...
On a side note, one of their VCs, Vab Goel, also on the board was quoted anonymously that they are VERY happy with their investement with Lifesize and thought it could end up being one of their best investements. Now...that statement makes you wonder how well they are doing.
Anyone want to pass on info, please email me.
how big are they?
I was at PLCM when they initially launched. I have to say... we intially were upset...then moved to a charge to take them on...released the HDX... then became complacent as we felt like we crushed them. Everyone felt like they were done with... we heard tons of rumors of people defecting. In truth...some Lifesize employees were ex-Polycom and some of them actually came back to Polycom. Anyway...
I have to think at this time, PLCM is paying alot more attention to Lifesize. So...really how big are they? They're not public...
On a side note, one of their VCs, Vab Goel, also on the board was quoted anonymously that they are VERY happy with their investement with Lifesize and thought it could end up being one of their best investements. Now...that statement makes you wonder how well they are doing.
Anyone want to pass on info, please email me.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Couple of notes on growth & issues from the Polycom call
2% q/q growth (Tandberg is 7.9%)
15% y/y growth (Tandberg is 27%)
60.2% gross margin (Tandberg is 65.9%)
21,126 group video units sold (Tandberg sold 17,487)
4% y/y network systems (Tandberg had growth of 111% y/y)
[of note...network systems did have 21% q/q growth]
$33.9M Sales of Network systems (Tandberg had sales of $39M of Network Systems)
There is significant weakness in Polycom's business. While they are still selling more units than TAA, they are selling them at a lower gross margin. Averaging out group systems, looks like TAA takes in $1k more per system. If PLCM could bring that up by $1K per system, it would be an additional $21M. PLCM just recently raised MSRP on their products; but if you look at their business they are discounting the heck out of their products to try to keep up with TAA. This will continue to erode the gross margin..my guess is that you will see it drop below 60% in the next 1-2 quarters. I think PLCM has figured this out...as Mike's guidance shows that PLCM should be between 59-63. PLCM will be at the bottom end of their own estimates which are considerably lower their major competitor. (as well, compare to CSCO as well at 65%)
There is also weakness on the audio side, I didn't note the numbers, but they were down. My guess is that Spectralink is the big downside...as most of the wireless handsets are being sold into the retail side.
Interesting things that Bob & Mike said:
"we've not seen budgets decrease, only sales cycles have increased" -Bob
Interesting comment since PLCMs largest customers are all financial. Being that many of them have evaporated, I'm not sure how this can be true.
"um....yeah..." - Mike
Looks like the street is punishing PLCM. PLCM's last trade was at $18.19...or down $2.66.. -12.76% for the day. I really hope Mike & Bob can figure out the mix here...they have great potential, but it seems that all the missteps that are being made, TAA and Lifesize are taking away business.
15% y/y growth (Tandberg is 27%)
60.2% gross margin (Tandberg is 65.9%)
21,126 group video units sold (Tandberg sold 17,487)
4% y/y network systems (Tandberg had growth of 111% y/y)
[of note...network systems did have 21% q/q growth]
$33.9M Sales of Network systems (Tandberg had sales of $39M of Network Systems)
There is significant weakness in Polycom's business. While they are still selling more units than TAA, they are selling them at a lower gross margin. Averaging out group systems, looks like TAA takes in $1k more per system. If PLCM could bring that up by $1K per system, it would be an additional $21M. PLCM just recently raised MSRP on their products; but if you look at their business they are discounting the heck out of their products to try to keep up with TAA. This will continue to erode the gross margin..my guess is that you will see it drop below 60% in the next 1-2 quarters. I think PLCM has figured this out...as Mike's guidance shows that PLCM should be between 59-63. PLCM will be at the bottom end of their own estimates which are considerably lower their major competitor. (as well, compare to CSCO as well at 65%)
There is also weakness on the audio side, I didn't note the numbers, but they were down. My guess is that Spectralink is the big downside...as most of the wireless handsets are being sold into the retail side.
Interesting things that Bob & Mike said:
"we've not seen budgets decrease, only sales cycles have increased" -Bob
Interesting comment since PLCMs largest customers are all financial. Being that many of them have evaporated, I'm not sure how this can be true.
"um....yeah..." - Mike
Looks like the street is punishing PLCM. PLCM's last trade was at $18.19...or down $2.66.. -12.76% for the day. I really hope Mike & Bob can figure out the mix here...they have great potential, but it seems that all the missteps that are being made, TAA and Lifesize are taking away business.
Super Impressesed!
I have to say "wow" over the new Lifesize 200!
http://www.lifesize.com/products/
A 1080P system for just $17K list. And then to come out with the "Conference 200" which is a 3 codec system. While not as sophisticated looking as a Tandberg T3 or a Polycom TPX or a Cisco 3000... the price is pheonomenal. I've read that list is $50k.
http://www.lifesize.com/downloads/pdf/datasheet_conference200.pdf
I have not physicaly seen them yet, but I cant wait. Lifesize definitely appears to be very focused on providing very very good value. I look at the Conference 200 and what I see is a telepresence system for the middle part of a company. Whereas the Polycom RPX, the Cisco 3000, T3, and Halo are such pricey systems, they're really sold for E-Staff usage. The Conference 200 certainly could hit mass usuage!
Good job Lifesize!
http://www.lifesize.com/products/
A 1080P system for just $17K list. And then to come out with the "Conference 200" which is a 3 codec system. While not as sophisticated looking as a Tandberg T3 or a Polycom TPX or a Cisco 3000... the price is pheonomenal. I've read that list is $50k.
http://www.lifesize.com/downloads/pdf/datasheet_conference200.pdf
I have not physicaly seen them yet, but I cant wait. Lifesize definitely appears to be very focused on providing very very good value. I look at the Conference 200 and what I see is a telepresence system for the middle part of a company. Whereas the Polycom RPX, the Cisco 3000, T3, and Halo are such pricey systems, they're really sold for E-Staff usage. The Conference 200 certainly could hit mass usuage!
Good job Lifesize!
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Tandberg Results
Tandberg just posted results...
It will be interesting to dive into it and compare to Polycom's as they come out:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/081014/20081014006206.html?.v=1
It will be interesting to dive into it and compare to Polycom's as they come out:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/081014/20081014006206.html?.v=1
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Shows
Ok, this post is really just for my own help. I'm just doing some planning on what shows I should plan on attending. Being that I work with several technologies...I need to go to several. I'm planning on going to:
VoiceCon (November in SFO)
http://www.voicecon.com/
NRF Big Show (Jan in NYC)
http://events.nrf.com/annual09/public/enter.aspx
Digital Signage Expo (Feb in Vegas)
http://www.digitalsignageexpo.net/
But... as far as AV and VTC conference go. I'm not sure which one I want to go to. Sure NAB is a blast..but its just not worth it if you're in AV or VTC. (but it is a cool show). There is Interop...but VTC is just a small portion (and theres no AV).
So...curious... who's going to what shows? which ones do you think are the flubs? and which is the best to go to?
thanks!
VoiceCon (November in SFO)
http://www.voicecon.com/
NRF Big Show (Jan in NYC)
http://events.nrf.com/annual09/public/enter.aspx
Digital Signage Expo (Feb in Vegas)
http://www.digitalsignageexpo.net/
But... as far as AV and VTC conference go. I'm not sure which one I want to go to. Sure NAB is a blast..but its just not worth it if you're in AV or VTC. (but it is a cool show). There is Interop...but VTC is just a small portion (and theres no AV).
So...curious... who's going to what shows? which ones do you think are the flubs? and which is the best to go to?
thanks!
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